Arch Manning Scouting Report: Texas QB | 2026 NFL Draft Prospect
- 1 day ago
- 7 min read
Player Overview
Name: Arch Manning
Position: Quarterback
School: University of Texas
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 225 lbs
Class: Redshirt Sophomore (2025 season)
Hometown: New Orleans, LA
High School: Isidore Newman School
Draft Range Summary:
Projections range from the No. 2 overall pick to the top 10, reflecting Manning’s elite potential tempered by limited starting experience.
• PFF: 1st round, No. 2 overall, QB1 (May 2025)
• Pro Football Network: 1st round, Top 5, QB1–2 (Apr 2025)
• NFL.com: 1st round, Top 10, QB2 (Jan 2025)
• ESPN: 1st round, Top 5, QB1 (Jan 2025)
• CBS Sports: 1st round, No. 4 overall, QB2 (Mar 2025)
• The 33rd Team: 1st round, Top 5, QB1–2 (Mar 2025)
• Combine Data/Unofficial Times: No official NFL Combine data available (as of June 2, 2025). Estimated 40-yard dash time of ~4.62 seconds per NFL Draft Buzz, indicating above-average mobility. High school stats included 8,599 passing yards, 115 TDs, 20 INTs, and 2,094 rushing yards, 42 TDs, leading Isidore Newman to Louisiana Division III playoffs (2019–2022).
Career Background
Arch Manning, a five-star recruit and the top-ranked prospect in the 2023 class, dominated at Isidore Newman School, earning MaxPreps National Player of the Year (2022) and Gatorade Louisiana Player of the Year (2021–2022). The grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, he committed to Texas over Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, enrolling early in 2023. As a redshirt freshman in 2023, he appeared in two games, throwing 5 passes. In 2024, backing up Quinn Ewers, he played in 10 games, starting two (Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi State), and threw for 939 yards and 9 TDs, helping Texas to a CFP semifinal. Set to start in 2025 under coach Steve Sarkisian, Manning aims to solidify his QB1 status for the 2026 NFL Draft, leveraging a rebuilt receiving corps (e.g., DeAndre Moore Jr., Ryan Wingo) despite losing key targets (Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden).
Career Stats (Through 2024 Season)
• 2023 (True Freshman, Redshirt): 2/5 (40.0%), 30 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 7 rushing yards, 0 TDs (Sports Reference)
• 2024 (Redshirt Freshman, Backup): 64/95 (67.4%), 939 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 108 rushing yards, 4 TDs (PFF 2024)
• Career Totals (2 Seasons): 66/100 (66.0%), 969 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 115 rushing yards, 4 TDs
• Advanced Stats (2024, PFF 2024):
• PFF Passing Grade: 88.0 (top-20 FBS among QBs with 100+ snaps)
• PFF Rushing Grade: 81.1
• QBR: 154.3 (NCAA, limited sample)
• Total Offense: 1,047 yards, 13 total TDs, 2 INTs
• TWP Rate: 2.1% (2 TWP on 95 aimed passes), low turnover risk
• Adjusted Completion %: 71.6% (64 completions + 4 drops / 95 aimed passes), above median (~70%), strong accuracy
• Sack Rate: 3.2% (3 sacks on 95 attempts), below median (~5.0%), excellent pocket navigation
• Penalties: 1, below median (~2), minimal operational issues
• Drop Rate: 4.2% (4 drops), below median (~6.0%), aiding completion %
Awards and Accolades
• High School:
• MaxPreps National Player of the Year (2022)
• Gatorade Louisiana Player of the Year (2021, 2022)
• Louisiana Mr. Football (2022)
• College:
• SEC Co-Freshman of the Week (September 2024)
• Davey O’Brien Great 8 List (2024)
Character and Leadership
Manning’s pedigree as a Manning family member brings immense pressure, yet he’s shown maturity by patiently backing up Quinn Ewers for two seasons, per The Athletic. His leadership emerged in 2024, earning teammate respect for his work ethic and swagger, per Matthew Golden. No off-field issues reported, with X posts praising his poise and competitiveness. His $6.6M NIL valuation (On3) and decision to potentially stay through 2026 reflect a calculated approach, per ESPN’s Field Yates.
Injuries
No major injuries reported at Texas. Manning’s 6’4”, 225-pound frame offers durability, and his low 3.2% sack rate (PFF 2024) reflects strong pocket awareness. Maintaining health in 2025 as a full-time starter is crucial, especially with Texas’ rebuilt offensive line, per NFL Draft Buzz.
Play Style
Manning is a dual-threat quarterback with a polished pocket presence, excelling in Texas’ spread offense under Steve Sarkisian, which blends pro-style concepts with RPO elements. His elite arm strength (8.1 YPA, 2024) and quick release deliver accurate throws across all levels, with 6 big-time throws in limited action (PFF 2024). Above-average mobility (108 rushing yards, 4 TDs, ~8% scramble rate) enables scrambling and designed runs, highlighted by a 67-yard TD run vs. UTSA. His calm footwork and anticipation (83.9% completion vs. Mississippi State) showcase advanced processing for a redshirt freshman, per The Athletic. However, limited starting experience (2 starts against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State) and developing pressure mechanics (65.0 PFF grade under pressure) reflect rawness, with occasional hesitancy in reads (e.g., UTSA near-interception, per PFF play-by-play), per Bleacher Report.
Strengths
1. Arm Talent: Elite velocity and touch (8.1 YPA, 6 big-time throws), per PFF.
2. Processing: Advanced pre-snap reads and progression ability, per The Draft Network.
3. Mobility: Above-average dual-threat (108 rushing yards, 4 TDs), effective scrambler, per ESPN.
4. Poise: Calm under pressure, rhythmic footwork, per The Athletic.
5. Pedigree: High football IQ from Manning family background, per NFL Draft Buzz.
Weaknesses
1. Experience: Limited starts (2 games), needs high-stakes reps, per PFF.
2. Decision-Making: Inexperience leads to occasional hesitancy (2.1% TWP rate), per Bleacher Report.
3. Pressure Handling: 65.0 PFF grade under pressure, inconsistent mechanics, per PFF.
4. Deep-Ball Accuracy: 33.3% completion on 20+ yard throws (small sample), per PFF.
5. Supporting Cast: Rebuilt 2025 offense may expose rawness, per SI.com.
Limitations
Manning’s limited starting experience (100 pass attempts, 2 starts) restricts a comprehensive evaluation, with his 2024 tape primarily against non-elite opponents. His developing pressure mechanics (65.0 PFF grade) and occasional hesitancy in reads (2.1% TWP rate, small sample) could be tested against stronger SEC defenses in 2025. While his mobility adds versatility, he’s not a true dual-threat athlete quite like Jayden Daniel’s or Jalen Milroe, limiting his fit in RPO-heavy schemes. Texas’ rebuilt 2025 offense (e.g., new receivers, offensive line) may challenge his consistency, per SI.com. A full season as a starter in 2025 is essential to validate his elite potential, per The Athletic.
Scheme Fit
Manning’s arm talent, mobility, and processing suit hybrid West Coast/spread systems with RPO elements.
Potential fits, based on 2025 QB roster analysis and team schemes, include:
• New York Jets (Tanner Engstrand): Engstrand’s 2025 system, influenced by his Detroit Lions tenure under Ben Johnson, emphasizes a fast, physical, and aggressive offense with a balanced run-pass attack,l. The Jets use 38% 12 personnel, blending outside zone runs (44.3% of Breece Hall’s carries) with play-action and RPOs, per jetsxfactor.com. Manning’s quick release, arm strength (8.1 YPA), and mobility (108 rushing yards, ~8% scramble rate) align with Engstrand’s scheme, which tailored to Justin Fields’ dual-threat skills (4.4-second 40, 19 rushing TDs career). His advanced reads (71.6% adjusted completion) suit the system’s emphasis on detailed route-running and explosive plays, complementing Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. The Jets’ need for a long-term QB beyond Fields (1-year deal) makes Manning a potential fit, per CBS Sports.
• Cleveland Browns (Kevin Stefanski/Unknown OC): West Coast, play-action system (40% 12 personnel) lacks a franchise QB, with Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and others competing.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Mike Tomlin/Arthur Smith): Run-heavy, play-action system (42% 12 personnel) has no franchise QB, with Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson as stopgaps. The Steelers have not been within striking distance of a capable franchise quarterback since they drafted Ben Rothlisberger in 2004. They swung at Kenny Pickett in 2022 (Rd.1/Pick 20) and will try out 6th Round Pick Will Howard before making a decision to push enough draft capital to move up to take a capable starter.
• New Orleans Saints (Kellen Moore/Doug Nussmeier): West Coast, pass-heavy offense (60% 11 personnel) needs a QB post-Derek Carr (retired), with Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener unproven. Manning’s local ties and versatility makes him an enticing option.
Player Comparison
• Comparison: Aaron Rodgers (6’2”, 223 lbs). Rodgers’ elite arm (7.7 YPA, 25 big-time throws, 2010), above-average mobility (4.71 vs. ~4.62-second 40, 343 vs. 108 rushing yards/season), and polished pocket presence mirror Manning’s 6’4”, 225 lbs frame, 8.1 YPA, and 2024 performance. Both thrive in hybrid West Coast/spread systems, with low turnover risk (2.0% vs. 2.1% TWP rate) and advanced processing (71.6% adjusted completion for Manning). Rodgers’ early-career rawness (2005–2007, limited starts) reflects Manning’s inexperience, with his 2010 Packers tape capturing Manning’s 2024 tape’s high-upside, poised passing, per PFF.
Off-Field Considerations
Manning’s family legacy brings unparalleled scrutiny, yet he’s embraced it with humility, per teammate Quinn Ewers. His $6.6M NIL valuation (On3) and potential to stay through 2026 suggest financial flexibility, per ESPN. No off-field issues reported, with X posts highlighting his athleticism and leadership. His ability to connect with diverse teammates adds to his intangibles, per The Athletic.
Draft Outlook and Recommendations
Arch Manning’s elite arm, dual-threat ability, and advanced processing position him as a top-tier 2026 NFL Draft prospect with QB1 potential. His 2024 performance (939 yards, 9 TDs, 108 rushing yards) in limited action shows blue-chip promise, but his lack of experience (2 starts) requires a breakout 2025 season to confirm his readiness. With Texas’ rebuilt offense, he must demonstrate consistency against elite SEC defenses to justify his hype, per SI.com. His decision to declare in 2026 or stay until 2027 will depend on 2025 production, with NIL wealth potentially delaying his entry, per ESPN. A strong 2025 could cement him as the No. 1 overall pick, per PFN.
• Personal Draft Recommendation: Early 1st Round (Top 5, 2026, if he declares). Manning’s elite tools and processing suggest a franchise QB ceiling, but his limited starts necessitate a full 2025 season to confirm Top-5 readiness, balancing his rawness with HOF-caliber potential. The hype behind Manning is real!
Final Evaluation
Arch Manning’s elite arm talent, dual-threat ability, and advanced processing position him as a potential QB1 for the 2026 NFL Draft, with Top 5 pick upside if he declares. His limited 2024 tape shows blue-chip potential, but a breakout 2025 as Texas’ starter is crucial to confirm his readiness. Arch Manning has been groomed by his grandfather and uncles for this moment, so expect a big season. The Manning Family Legend Grows!
Sources
• PFF 2024 QB Stats
• PFF 2023 QB Stats
• Sports Reference
• Bleacher Report
• ESPN
• NFL Draft Buzz
• Pro Football Network
• The 33rd Team
• NFL.com
• CBS Sports
• The Athletic
• SI.com
• Sporting News
• Yahoo Sports
• On3
• Posts found on X
Comments