Carson Beck Scouting Report: Miami QB | 2026 NFL Draft Prospect
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
Player Overview
Name: Carson Beck
Position: Quarterback
School: University of Miami (transferred from Georgia, 2025)
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 220 lbs
Class: Redshirt Senior (2025 season)
Hometown: Jacksonville, FL
High School: Mandarin High School
• Draft Projection: Late 1st to 5th Round. Last summer, Beck was the consensus top quarterback prospect. After a down year, he returned to college, entered the transfer portal, and is projected to earn an estimated $4.3N in NIL money, which ranks 3rd most among active college players. But with the down year, injury to his throwing elbow, analysts are split on where he will fall in the draft process next year.
• PFF: Late 1st to mid-round, 32nd overall, QB6 (May 2025)
• Pro Football Network: 3rd–4th round, QB5 (Apr 2025)
• NFL.com: 2nd–3rd round, QB4 (Jan 2025)
• ESPN: 2nd–5th round, QB5–7 (Jan 2025)
• CBS Sports: 3rd–4th round, QB5 (Mar 2025)
• The 33rd Team: 3rd–5th round, QB5–6, adjusted from 2nd round pre-injury (Nov 2024)
Combine Data/Unofficial Times: No official NFL Combine data available (as of June 1, 2025). Estimated 40-yard dash time of ~4.84 seconds per NFL Draft Buzz, indicating adequate mobility. High school stats included 6,104 passing yards, 71 TDs, and 17 INTs, leading Mandarin to a Florida 8A state title (2018).
Career Background
Carson Beck, a four-star recruit, led Mandarin High School to Florida’s 8A state championship in 2018, earning Florida Mr. Football. At Georgia, he redshirted in 2020 and backed up Stetson Bennett in 2021–2022, appearing in 11 games. As the 2023 starter, he threw for 3,941 yards and 24 TDs, earning All-SEC honors. In 2024, he regressed (3,429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs), with turnovers and a UCL injury (December 2024) impacting his stock. Transferring to Miami in January 2025, Beck aims to revive his draft stock under offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, leveraging a veteran offensive line and improved receivers.
Career Stats (Through 2024 Season)
• 2020 (True Freshman, Redshirt): 0/0 (0%), 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 rushing yards (Sports Reference)
• 2021 (Redshirt Freshman, Backup): 10/23 (43.5%), 176 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 19 rushing yards, 0 TDs (Sports Reference)
• 2022 (Redshirt Sophomore, Backup): 26/35 (74.3%), 310 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 43 rushing yards, 0 TDs (Sports Reference)
• 2023 (Redshirt Junior, Starter): 302/417 (72.4%), 3,941 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs, 116 rushing yards, 4 TDs (PFF 2023)
• 2024 (Redshirt Senior, Starter): 305/468 (65.2%), 3,429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs, 111 rushing yards, 1 TD (PFF 2024)
• Career Totals (5 Seasons): 643/943 (68.2%), 7,856 yards, 58 TDs, 20 INTs, 289 rushing yards, 5 TDs
• Advanced Stats (2024, PFF 2024):
• PFF Passing Grade: 80.2
• PFF Rushing Grade: 70.4
• QBR: 135.7 (NCAA, mid-tier)
• Total Offense: 3,540 yards, 29 total TDs, 12 INTs
• TWP Rate: 3.6% (17 TWP on 468 aimed passes), above median (~2.9%), indicating turnover risk
• Adjusted Completion %: 73.1% (305 completions + 36 drops / 468 aimed passes), above average, solid accuracy
• Sack Rate: 5.6% (26 sacks on 468 attempts), above median (~5.0%), reflecting pressure struggles
• Penalties: 3, near median (~2), minor clock management issues
• Drop Rate: 7.7% (36 drops), high (top-10 FBS), significantly impacting completion %
Awards and Accolades
• High School:
• Florida Mr. Football (2018)
• Florida 8A State Champion (2018)
• College:
• All-SEC Second Team (2023)
• Orange Bowl MVP (2023)
• SEC Offensive Player of the Week (October 2023)
Character and Leadership
Beck’s perseverance at Georgia, waiting behind Stetson Bennett, showcases resilience, earning praise from coach Kirby Smart for his football IQ. His transfer to Miami reflects ambition to rebuild stock post-injury, with no off-field issues. Beck led Georgia to big wins (2023 Orange Bowl), but 2024 turnovers drew X criticism for decision-making. His SEC experience suggests NFL readiness, per Pro Football Network.
Injuries
Beck suffered a UCL injury in his throwing elbow during the 2024 SEC Championship (Dec 7, 2024), requiring surgery (Dec 23, 2024) by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, sidelining him for the Sugar Bowl. He is expected to resume throwing by Miami’s spring practice (April 2025), per Bleacher Report and ESPN. His 6’4”, 220-pound frame offers durability, but a 5.6% sack rate (PFF 2024) and 36 drops highlight pressure issues.
Play Style
Beck is a pocket passer with a fluid throwing motion and high IQ, set to thrive in Miami’s spread offense (previously Georgia’s pro-style). His arm strength (7.3 YPA, 2024) and touch excel on intermediate throws, particularly middle-field targets (65%, PFF 2024). Adequate mobility (111 rushing yards) supports pocket navigation, but he’s not a dual-threat. A 2024 turnover spike (3.6% TWP rate) and pressure struggles (30.6 PFF grade) highlight decision-making and mechanical flaws, per PFF.
Strengths
1. Arm Talent: Strong arm with touch, hitting tight windows (7.3 YPA, 65% middle-field targets).
2. Football IQ: High pre-snap reads, adjusting plays, per The Draft Network.
3. Accuracy: 73.1% adjusted completion % (PFF 2024), precise on intermediate routes.
4. Mechanics: Fluid motion, clean footwork, squaring up under pressure.
5. Experience: Two-year SEC starter, poised in big games (2023 Orange Bowl).
Weaknesses
1. Turnovers: 3.6% TWP rate (PFF 2024), 12 INTs, risky under pressure.
2. Pressure Handling: 30.6 PFF passing grade under pressure, 5.6% sack rate.
3. Deep-Ball Accuracy: 34.8% completion on 20+ yard throws, inconsistent velocity.
4. Limited Mobility: Adequate but not dynamic (111 rushing yards), unfit for RPOs.
5. Injury Recovery: UCL surgery (December 2024) raises arm strength concerns.
Limitations
Beck’s turnover issues (3.6% TWP rate, 12 INTs) and poor pressure performance (30.6 PFF grade) limit immediate NFL readiness, especially against blitzes. His deep-ball inconsistency (34.8%) and limited mobility restrict scheme versatility. The 2024 UCL injury adds risk, requiring 2025 proof of arm health. With two years as a starter, Beck needs coaching to sharpen decision-making and pressure mechanics, fitting as a developmental backup.
Scheme Fit
Beck’s arm talent and rhythm passing suit West Coast or pro-style systems, ideal for a mid-to-late round developmental backup. Potential fits, based on 2025 QB roster analysis and team schemes, include:
• Cleveland Browns (Kevin Stefanski/Unknown OC): West Coast, play-action system (40% 12 personnel) lacks a franchise QB, with Pickett, Flacco, Gabriel, and Sanders competing. Beck’s accuracy fits a 3rd–4th round backup role.
• Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay/Mike LaFleur): Pass-heavy West Coast offense (72% 11 personnel) may need a successor for Stafford (38, contract ends 2026). Beck’s rhythm passing suits a 4th–5th round pick.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Mike Tomlin/Arthur Smith): Run-heavy, play-action system (42% 12 personnel) has no franchise QB, with Rudolph and Thompson as stopgaps. Beck’s IQ aligns with a 3rd–4th round role.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Todd Bowles/Josh Grizzard): Spread, pass-heavy offense (66% 11 personnel) may seek a backup for Mayfield (contract ends 2026). Beck’s touch fits a 4th–5th round pick.
Teams with dual-threat QBs (e.g., Commanders, Eagles) or recent early-round picks (e.g., Titans, Giants, Saints) are poor fits.
Player Comparisons
Comparison: Matthew Stafford (6’3”, 232 lbs). Stafford’s gunslinger mentality, powerful arm (7.6 YPA, 22 big-time throws, 2023), and moderate turnover risk (2.4% TWP rate) mirror Beck’s 6’4”, 220 lbs frame, 7.3 YPA, and 3.6% TWP rate. Both excel in West Coast/pro-style systems, with similar functional mobility (4.81 vs. 4.84-second 40, 113 vs. 111 rushing yards) and clutch play (Stafford’s 2021 Super Bowl vs. Beck’s 2023 Orange Bowl). Stafford’s aggressive passing and pressure resilience (65.0 PFF grade) reflect Beck’s 2024 tape, capturing his high-risk, high-reward style.
Off-Field Considerations
Beck’s four-star pedigree and Florida state title highlight his winning mentality. His patience at Georgia and transfer to Miami show resilience and ambition. No off-field issues reported, with X posts praising his 2023 accuracy but noting 2024 turnovers. Georgia’s 36 drops (2024) impacted stats, per PFF.
Draft Outlook and Recommendations
Carson Beck’s arm talent, IQ, and mechanics position him as a mid-to-late round (3rd–5th) pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, ideal as a developmental backup with starter potential. His 2024 season (3,429 yards, 28 TDs, 3.6% TWP rate) and 2025 Miami transfer signal upside, but turnovers and pressure handling require a 1–2 year timeline.
• Recommended Draft Range: Late 1st–2nd Round (2026)
• PFF: Late 1st to mid-round, 32nd overall, QB6 (May 2025)
• Pro Football Network: 3rd–4th round, QB5 (Apr 2025)
• NFL.com: 2nd–3rd round, QB4 (Jan 2025)
• ESPN: 2nd–5th round, QB5–7 (Jan 2025)
• CBS Sports: 3rd–4th round, QB5 (Mar 2025)
• The 33rd Team: 3rd–5th round, QB5–6, adjusted from 2nd round pre-injury (Nov 2024)
• Ideal Landing Spots: Browns, Rams, Steelers, Buccaneers
• Key Areas for 2025 Improvement:
• Reduce turnovers and improve decision-making
• Enhance performance under pressure
• Prove arm health post-UCL surgery
Final Evaluation
Carson Beck’s accuracy, football IQ, and fluid mechanics make him a promising 2026 NFL Draft prospect with backup-to-starter potential. His 2024 regression and 2025 Miami transfer highlight a critical year to rebuild stock. In a rhythm-based system, Beck could emulate Jared Goff’s reliability or risk Sam Darnold’s inconsistency without growth.
Sources
• PFF 2024 QB Stats
• PFF 2023 QB Stats
• PFF 2022 QB Stats
• Sports Reference
• Bleacher Report
• ESPN
• NFL Draft Buzz
• Pro Football Network
• The 33rd Team
• NFL.com
• CBS Sports
• The Athletic
• Posts found on X
Comments