Since 2000, there have only been six players to sign 10-year contracts.
2001 - Brett Farve - 10-year/$101.5M
2001 - Drew Bledsoe - 10-year/$103M
2002- Donovan McNabb - 12-year/$115M
2003 - Daunte Culpepper - 10-year/$70M
2004 - Michael Vick - 10-year/$138M
2020 - Patrick Mahomes - $10-year/$450M
Could Justin Herbert be in line of the next career setting extension? The hope is that the Chargers lock up Justin Herbert to make him the 7th player to receive that lengthy extension, though it is notable that is not the norm. For instance, Josh Allen signed a 6-year/$258M contract last year and there was reason to believe that he was worthy of a decade long contract.
Justin Herbert contract value
(Travis Ellison/ Los Angeles Chargers)
Currently, Aaron Rodgers is the highest paid quarterback in the NFL in terms of average annual value (AAV). He signed a 3-year/$150.8M contract which averages $50.23M per year. Justin Herbert could vary well eclipse that benchmark if he wanted to, or take more of a bargain, similiar to Josh Allen's $43M per year average. Regardless of what he chooses, Herbert should average at a price floor of $43M per year to a ceiling of $55M per year. His contract length should start at six years and can go all the way to 12.
Guaranteed Money
(Ty Nowell/ Los Angeles Chargers)
NFL Teams are starting to guarantee more and more money, especially at the quarterback position. Josh Allen had 58% of his contract value guaranteed, while players like Aaron Rodgers and Dashaun Watson had the entirety of their contract guaranteed. Even Kirk Cousins was able to have a fully guaranteed contract at one point in his career.
There should be an offset to this formula, even if history hasn't shown so. The more money guaranteed, the less the average annual salary. But players like Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson are not following this path, so negotiating in this way may be hard. Still, Tom Telesco should start the trend while negotiating with Herbert's agent, Davis Dunn of Athletes First.
Here is a list of the top-10 contracts for NFL quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers - 3yr-$150M ($50M AAV)
Russel Wilson - 5yr-$245M ($49M AAV)
Kylar Murray - 5yr-$230.5M ($46.1M AAV)
Deshaun Watson - 5yr-$230M ($46M AAV)
Patrick Mahomes - 10yr-$450M ($45M AAV)
Josh Allen - 6yr-$258M ($43M AAV)
Derek Carr - 3yr-$120.5M $($40.1M AAV)
Matt Stafford - 4yr-$160M ($40M AAV)
Dak Prescott - 4yr-$160M ($40M AAV)
Kirk Cousins - 1yr-$35M ($35M AAV)
Contract Length
(Noel Vazquez/Los Angeles Chargers)
Another factor to consider with guarenteed money is length of contract. Some players want shorter contracts that give them the ability to sign elseware in the event they become unhappy or want to increase their payday in the future. This is a bet on yourself scenario. Others want long term contracts that provide security knowing where they can put down roots down for the long haul.
Justin Herbert seems to be happy with the organization and has a good relationship with the coaching staff and front office. Knowing that he had a say in the offensive coordinator hiring process gives him a say in the decision making within the organization. He is about as close to his hometown of Eugene, OR as he can be with only the Seahawks, and 49ers being closer. Both are still flights away, so there is no big benefit of being "closer to home." There is no reason to believe that he does not want a long term contract, and there is no reason to believe that the Chargers are not sold on him in their long term plans. He has every reason to sign a 6-year plus contract.
Let's take a look at what his total contract could look like:
(Ty Nowell/ Los Angeles Chargers)
Floor: $43M Average - Fully Guarenteed
6 year - $258M
8 year - $344M
10 year - $430M
12 year - 517M
Competitive: $49M Average - 75% guarenteed
6 year - $294M ($220M Guaranteed)
8 year - $394M ($294M Guaranteed)
10 year - $490M ($367.5 Guaranteed)
12 year - 588M ($367.5M Guaranteed)
Ceiling: $55M Average - 60% Guaranteed
6 year - $330M ($198M Guaranteed)
8 year - $440M ($264M Guaranteed)
10 year - $550M ($330M Guaranteed)
12 year - $660M ($396M Guaranteed)
Justin Herbert and the Chargers could also opt for a contract structured similiar to Patrick Mahomes. On the surface, Mahomes contract looks like it is a massive contract with very little guarantees. He signed a $10M signing bonus and only has about 14% in guarantees. In actuality, $477M can be guaranteed through roster status's each year. It is also structured in a way where the Chiefs can turn base salary into signing bonus's and free up cap space in the early years of the contract.
This opens a wide window for the Chiefs Super Bowl runs. The bill will come due, but they can take advantage of Mahomes prime years now and worry about the reshuffle and massive roster much later in career. There will eventually be a rebuild, but the next five years will be of great benefit to the Chiefs.
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