Thoughts on the Los Angeles Chargers This Season

Simply put, the Chargers are not a good football team right now. They are currently 2-4 heading into week-8 with an important game against the Chicago Bears. According to the New York Times, the Chargers odds are 30% to make the playoffs. If they win against Chicago, their odds only jump to 33%. With a loss, the percentage drops to 19%, and Brandon Staley's seat as head coach becomes incredibly hot.

Brandon Staley Nearing In-Season Job Loss

Charger fans have began to turn on Brandon Staley and reasonably so. For as likeable as a person that Staley is, his job is predicated on results, and the results just haven't been what they should be with a team built around numerous stars on both side of the ball. Staley was regarded as a defensive genius coming from the Vic Fangio coaching tree. As a defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams, Staley coached the NFL's No.1 defensive unit that allowed just 18.5 points per game.

Switching to the other side of the fence with the Chargers, it was expected that Staley would bring the same stout, hard-nosed bully to win the Chargers a Super Bowl. With stars like Derwin James, Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and JC Jackson, he had pieces to really implement his style of football. Instead, the Chargers have been near the bottom in total rushing yards allowed in back-to-back seasons, and he's trending toward having one of the worst pass defenses in 2023. This, while having the largest defensive payroll of any NFL team, is absolutely unacceptable for a defensive guru.

His issues go above a calling an underwhelming defense. Staley's game management and aggressive tendencies put a lot of pressure on the team to execute in key situations, namely on the offensive side of the ball. He's backed off a bit from his first season, where every 4th-down became a go-for-it situation, but even now, Staley's game management is borderline reckless. It was a change from the Anthony Lynn's and Mike McCoy's overly conservative nature, but the swing to aggressive is even higher on the barometric scale.

Growing pains were expected for a first time head coach, whose NFL experience spanned just four seasons. While Staley improved from year-1 to year-2, even making playoffs last season, the regression this season is noticeable. The Chargers are competitive, whether they are playing up or down to their opponents skill level, but they have never played up to their own ability. If the General Manager is in charge of building a roster, the coaching staff develops them and turns the team into winners. Staley is trending in the wrong direction, and if this season doesn't turn around quickly, Staley won't be a head coach much longer.

Tom Telesco isn't Safe Either

Tom Telesco became the Chargers general manager in 2013. In his 11th year as the general manager, the Chargers have made playoffs just three times. Over that span, the Chargers have just two seasons with over 10 wins, and never won the AFC West division under his leadership. The two constants over the last 10-years have been Keenan Allen and Tom Telesco. Allen at the age of 32 continues to be a steady contributor, defying his age, while teams built around him have failed to have consistent success the way Allen has through out his career.

Telesco has hired three coaches in his tenure. Mike McCoy, Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley have all come up short of expectations. To date, Telesco's win-loss record is 81-87 (48%). NFL GM's with prolonged success have win percentages that hover closer to 60%. Of note, John Schneider 61.4% (Seahawks 2010-2023), Ted Thompson 60.3% (Packers 2005-2017), and Kevin Colbert 64.5%(Steelers 2000-2021).

Of those General Managers, they have all installed head coaches that have been with them the majority of their careers. John Schneider has been linked to Pete Carrol his entire career. Ted Thompson was linked to Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthey most of his career. Kevin Colbert won Super Bowls with both Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin at the helm. Great General Managers do more than build winning rosters. They hire head coaches that create a certain winning culture, by creating a coaching staff that develops players, create winning game plans, and gets a team bought into a winning organization. None of the Chargers head coaches under Telesco have accomplished that.

Telesco has improved his drafting in recent years, but his early career drafts were atrocious. It is something he likely should have been fired for earlier in his career. DJ Fluker, Manti Teo, Jeremiah Attaochu, Jason Verratt, Chris Watt, Craig Mager, Max Tuerk, Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney - All players drafted in the first three rounds from 2013-2017 who didn't make it to a second contract for injury or lack of success.

His recent hits on players like Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, Asante Samuel, Joshua Palmer, and Tuli Tuipulotu have extended his career, but the damage early in his draft classes led to the overall team culture in later years. Telesco is the ultimate responsible leader for the teams overall culture and its been a losing culture for most of his career. If and when Brandon Staley is fired, Telesco should be in line for a replacement as well.

Chargers Defensive Product in 2023

The Chargers defense is much improved against the run, just to be overshadowed with an abysmal pass defense. They have traded big plays against the run from last year, for even more dangerous explosive plays against the pass this year. Both are paramount to winning football games.

The Chargers have opted to back off in coverage to prevent the explosive plays, which has led to opposing teams methodically moving down field using space underneath and between the zones. That's a playing scared tactic based on the early issues this season. That is not what Brandon Staley's defense is predicated on. If Staley wants to fix the issues in pass defense, he needs to continue to play to the strengths of his cornerbacks in coverage.

Michael Davis is a big body corner who wins by playing physical at the line of scrimmage. Asante Samuel was one of the highest graded cornerbacks in man early in the season. This defense is built to play press-man coverage, and use the pass rush to make the quarterback get the ball out quickly. The pass rush has been extremely successful this season. Don't get away from your identity on defense now Staley.

This year, the Chargers have a nasty injury bug to the safety position. Derwin James it not playing to his usual self, and putting the Chargers in a bad place with penalties. Gilman was playing exceptionally well prior to his injury, but he should be back soon. The Chargers lost JT Woods due to a non-football medical condition, with little word in his return from IR. When he returns, he will be a welcome site, considering the strides he made in his development over the preseason. Raheem Payne was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Even so, AJ Finley and Dean Marlow have filled in nicely as unknowns from the practice squad.

One of the biggest risers this year has been Kenneth Murray. It took four seasons, but Murray's instincts sifting through traffic have become an asset to the Chargers and it's led to multiple stops behind the line of scrimmage. The defensive line has been more physical, and opened more opportunities for Murray and Kendricks to be factors in our opponents backfield.

Chargers Offensive Product in 2023

Again, the Chargers are not a good football team right now. The re-emergence of Keenan Allen has gone largely unnoticed. Justin Herbert is not playing up to the MVP form we were blessed with in previous years. The breakout in the week-1 offensive rush attack looked to be a fluke, as the Chargers rush offense returned its stagnant norm. The pass protection looks as leaky as it's ever been. This is a team with no offensive identity.

The issues start at the offensive line. In week-1, the Chargers opened massive rushing lanes, leading to an explosive 200+ yard game by Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley. Since Ekeler's injury, and Corey Linsley hitting IR, the Chargers are mostly back to their previous issues. There are more explosive plays opening, but consistency from snap-to-snap just isn't where it needs to be. Ekeler's return has gone largely unnoticed so far, but there is enough success to believe the Chargers can still be a dominant Rush offense.

In pass protection, the Chargers are giving up far too many pressures, especially in key moments. One of Kellen Moore's philosophy's he's been implementing in the offense is finding more reliable deep shots down field. That requires longer developing route concepts, which requires the offensive line to stick to their blocks longer. In previous seasons, Herbert was asked to get through his reads quicker with a quicker release. The change hasn't happened as smoothly with a Herbert unable to find the time or trust in his offensive line to hit those opportunities. Instead, Herbert has been skidish with pressure, with bad pocket presence. Some of the sacks and pressures he's taking have been self inflicted. It's also lead to inaccuracy issues and missed opportunities for the offense.

The Chargers have had success from Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer. Both players look improved. Allen is getting open at an alarming rate, while Palmers development is trending positive. What they have failed to do is utilize Quentin Johnston in a meaningful way. Derius Davis has a more defined role, with a great amount of success as a speedy gadget player, but Johnston's tool set and draft pedigree suggests he should play a bigger factor in the game plan, especially with Mike Williams lost for the season. It's going to continue to be a slow play for Johnston, whose role could diminish further when Jalen Guyton returns to the lineup as a primary deep threat. The Chargers tight ends are an encouraging young group, but they are still underwhelming as primary lead blockers in Kellen Moore's duel tightend sets.

Final Thoughts

We're not quite yet at a loss this season, but the Chargers are headed toward an uneasy future that gets worse when you realize that next season is likely going to be a rebuild with the Chargers cap situation as it stands. The Chargers are projected to be over the 2024 salary cap by -$45M with $20M in dead cap, thanks to the JC Jackson trade. It's an all-in year for the Chargers and All-in isn't looking nearly as good as the Chargers All-In YouTube series. Something needs to change, and fast, if there is any hope to right the ship this year.