Fernando Mendoza Scouting Report: Indiana QB | 2026 NFL Draft Prospect

Jun 5
7 min read

• Name: Fernando Mendoza

• Position: Quarterback

• School: Indiana University (transferred from Cal, 2025)

• /Weight: 6’5”, 225 lbs

• Class: Redshirt Junior (2025 season)

• Hometown: Miami, FL

• High School: Christopher Columbus High School

• Recruiting Rank: 3-star recruit, #134 QB nationally, #250 in Florida (2022, 247Sports)

Draft Range Summary

Projections range from mid-to-late first round to early second round, reflecting Mendoza’s breakout potential as a polished passer with NFL-ready tools.

• PFF: 1st round, No. 14 overall, QB2 (May 2025)

• Pro Football Network: 1st round, No. 16 overall, QB3 (May 2025)

• NFL.com: 2nd round, QB4 (Jan 2025)

• ESPN: 1st round, No. 20 overall, QB3 (May 2025)

• CBS Sports: 1st round, No. 14 overall, QB1 (May 2025)

• The 33rd Team: 1st round, No. 27 overall, QB4 (Mar 2025)

Combine Data/Unofficial Times: No official NFL Combine data available (as of June 2, 2025). Estimated 40-yard dash time of ~4.85 seconds per NFL Draft Buzz, indicating functional mobility. High school stats included 224/332 (67.5%) for 2,222 yards, 29 TDs, and an FHSAA 8A state title as a backup (2020), per Sports Reference.

Career Background

Fernando Mendoza, a three-star recruit, played at Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, earning first-team All-Dade County honors as a junior and captaining his team to a No. 14 national ranking in 2021, per 247Sports. Initially under-recruited with only one FBS offer from Cal, he redshirted in 2022 and became Cal’s starter midway through 2023, throwing for 1,708 yards. In 2024, he started 11 games, passing for 3,004 yards and earning three ACC Quarterback of the Week awards, per iuhoosiers.com.

Transferring to Indiana in December 2024 after entering the portal, he joined his brother Alberto (redshirt freshman QB) under coach Curt Cignetti, who led Indiana to an 11-2 record and CFP berth in 2024, per On3. Set to start in 2025, Mendoza aims to build on Indiana’s QB-friendly offense, replacing Kurtis Rourke, with weapons like Omar Cooper Jr. and a veteran offensive line, per crimsonquarry.com.

Career Stats (Through 2024 Season)

• 2022 (True Freshman, Redshirt, Cal): Did not play (redshirted) (Sports Reference)

• 2023 (Redshirt Freshman, Cal): 143/235 (60.9%), 1,708 yards, 14 TDs, 10 INTs, 32 rushing yards, 1 TD (PFF 2023)

• 2024 (Redshirt Sophomore, Cal): 267/389 (68.7%), 3,004 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 85 rushing yards, 2 TDs (PFF 2024)

• Career Totals (2 Seasons): 410/624 (65.7%), 4,712 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs, 117 rushing yards, 3 TDs

Advanced Stats (2024, PFF 2024):

• PFF Passing Grade: 85.2 (top-25 FBS)

• PFF Rushing Grade: 70.4

• QBR: 145.8 (NCAA, top-30)

• Total Offense: 3,089 yards, 18 total TDs, 6 INTs

• TWP Rate: 2.3% (9 TWP on 389 aimed passes), below median (~3.2%), low turnover risk

• Adjusted Completion %: 73.5% (267 completions + 19 drops / 389 aimed passes), above median (~70%), strong accuracy

• Sack Rate: 5.1% (20 sacks on 389 attempts), near median (~5.0%), average pocket navigation

• Penalties: 2, below median (~2), minimal operational issues

• Drop Rate: 4.9% (19 drops), below median (~6.0%), aiding completion %

Awards and Accolades

• High School:

• First-team All-Dade County (2021)

• FHSAA 8A State Champion (2020, backup)

• College:

• Three-time ACC Quarterback of the Week (2024)

• Manning Award Quarterback of the Week (November 2024)

• PFF Preseason All-Big Ten (2025)

Character and Leadership

Mendoza’s underdog journey from a single FBS offer to a 2026 draft riser showcases resilience, per daftondraft.football. His leadership at Cal, guiding a lackluster offense to 3,004 yards, earned praise from coaches, per crimsonquarry.com. Transferring to Indiana to join his brother Alberto reflects family loyalty, per On3. No off-field issues reported, with X posts lauding his work ethic and NFL-ready demeanor. His community service, including coordinating a Turkey Drive and founding They Can Too, highlights character, per iuhoosiers.com.

Injuries

No major injuries reported at Cal, though Mendoza missed one game in 2024 (vs. SMU) due to illness, per iuhoosiers.com. His 6’5”, 225-pound frame offers durability, but a 5.1% sack rate (PFF 2024) suggests average pocket navigation under pressure. Maintaining health in 2025 is key, especially in Indiana’s up-tempo offense, per NFL Draft Buzz.

Play Style

Mendoza is a polished pocket passer with functional mobility, thriving in Cal’s pro-style offense and set to excel in Indiana’s QB-friendly spread under Curt Cignetti. His strong arm (7.7 YPA, 2024) and quick release deliver precise throws, particularly on intermediate routes (78.2% completion, 10–19 yards, PFF 2024), with 18 big-time throws (top-20 FBS).

Functional mobility (85 rushing yards, 2 TDs, ~4% scramble rate) allows play extension but limits RPO usage. His high football IQ and rhythm-based passing (73.5% adjusted completion) shine in clean pockets (88.0 PFF grade), but conservative downfield throws (33.8% on 20+ yards) and pressure struggles (60.0 PFF grade under pressure) reflect areas for growth, per PFF. Improved ball security in 2024 (2.3% TWP rate vs. 3.0% in 2023) highlights development, per daftondraft.football.

Strengths

1. Arm Talent: Strong arm with touch (7.7 YPA, 18 big-time throws), per PFF.

2. Accuracy: 73.5% adjusted completion, precise intermediate throws, per PFF.

3. Football IQ: High pre-snap reads, rhythmic passer, per The Draft Network.

4. Durability: Prototypical 6’5”, 225 lbs frame, per SI.com.

5. Ball Security: Low 2.3% TWP rate, improved from 2023, per PFF.

Weaknesses

1. Pressure Handling: 60.0 PFF grade under pressure, inconsistent mechanics, per PFF.

2. Deep-Ball Aggression: Conservative downfield (33.8% on 20+ yards), per PFF.

3. Mobility: Functional but limited (85 rushing yards), unfit for heavy RPOs, per ESPN.

4. Experience in System: New to Indiana’s spread, needs adaptation, per crimsonquarry.com.

5. Experience in Big Games: Limited success in high-stakes games (0-5 vs. ranked opponents), per PFF.

Limitations

Mendoza’s conservative deep-ball approach (33.8% completion on 20+ yards) and pressure struggles (60.0 PFF grade) limit his immediate NFL readiness, particularly against blitz-heavy defenses. His functional mobility (85 rushing yards) restricts his fit in RPO-heavy schemes, tying him to pro-style or West Coast systems. His lack of success in big games (0-5 vs. ranked teams, 5 TDs, 5 INTs) raises questions about clutch performance, per SI.com. Transitioning to Indiana’s spread offense may challenge his rhythm initially, per crimsonquarry.com. With 18 career starts, Mendoza needs 2025 to boost downfield aggression and big-game performance to cement first-round status, per PFF.

Scheme Fit

Mendoza’s arm talent, accuracy, and pocket presence suit pro-style or West Coast systems. Potential fits, based on 2025 QB roster analysis and team schemes, include:

• New York Jets (Tanner Engstrand): Engstrand’s fast-paced, balanced offense (38% 12 personnel, 62% pass rate) emphasizes play-action and quick passes, per jetsxfactor.com. Mendoza’s quick release and accuracy (73.5% adjusted completion) align with the system’s detailed route-running demands, complementing Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. His functional mobility (4.85-second 40 est.) suits Engstrand’s play-action-heavy scheme, though limited RPO usage caps his dual-threat fit compared to Justin Fields. The Jets’ need for a long-term QB beyond Fields (1-year deal) makes Mendoza a potential target, per CBS Sports.

• Cleveland Browns (Kevin Stefanski): West Coast, play-action system (40% 12 personnel) lacks a franchise QB, with Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and others competing. Mendoza’s pocket presence suits this scheme, but the weaker WR room (Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore post-Amari Cooper trade) may challenge his production, per PFF.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Arthur Smith): Run-heavy, play-action system (42% 12 personnel) has no franchise QB, with Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson as stopgaps. Mendoza’s rhythm passing complements Roman Wilson, and DK Metcalf provides a big body target who can win in contested catch situations.

• New Orleans Saints (Kellen Moore): West Coast, pass-heavy offense (60% 11 personnel) needs a QB post-Derek Carr (retired), with Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener unproven. Mendoza’s accuracy and local ties enhance his fit, per SI.com.

Player Comparison

Comparison: Eli Manning (6’5”, 218 lbs). Manning’s polished pocket passing, strong arm (7.1 YPA, 2004), and functional mobility (4.92 vs. ~4.85-second 40 est., 35 vs. 85 rushing yards/season) mirror Mendoza’s 6’5”, 225 lbs frame, 7.7 YPA, and 2024 performance. Both excel in pro-style systems, with high football IQ (73.5% adjusted completion for Mendoza) and low turnover risk (2.5% vs. 2.3% TWP rate). Manning’s early-career reliance on intermediate throws and big-game inexperience (2004 Giants tape) reflect Mendoza’s 2024 tape, capturing his high-floor passing with developmental needs in pressure situations, per PFF.

Off-Field Considerations

Mendoza’s underdog story, rising from a single FBS offer to a 2026 draft prospect, highlights resilience, per daftondraft.football. His leadership at Cal, managing a challenging offense, and transfer to Indiana to join his brother Alberto showcase a competitive nature and maturity to take on new challenges, per On3. No off-field issues reported, with X posts praising his maturity and NFL-ready mindset. His community efforts, including a Turkey Drive and founding They Can Too, enhance his character, per iuhoosiers.com. Cal’s 4.9% drop rate (19 drops, 2024) aided his stats, per PFF, and Indiana’s up-tempo offense should amplify his production, per crimsonquarry.com.

Draft Outlook and Recommendations

Fernando Mendoza’s breakout 2024 season (3,004 yards, 16 TDs) and transfer to Indiana’s QB-friendly spread offense position him as a rising 2026 NFL Draft prospect with franchise QB potential. His polished passing and high football IQ suggest a high floor, but conservative deep-ball throws and pressure struggles require refinement to justify first-round hype. In 2025, under Curt Cignetti, Mendoza must adapt to Indiana’s spread, leveraging weapons like Omar Cooper Jr. to boost his stock against Big Ten defenses, per SI.com. A strong 2025 could elevate him to a Top-10 pick, per CBS Sports, while stagnation risks a second-round slide, per NFL.com. His decision to declare in 2026 or stay until 2027 will hinge on 2025 performance, with three years of eligibility remaining, per ESPN.

• Personal Draft Recommendation: 2nd Round (2026). Mendoza’s accuracy, arm talent, and improved ball security suggest a high-upside starter, but his pressure handling and deep-ball aggression need 2025 growth to secure a first-round selection. He could benefit from another transfer to a powerhouse football program after a stint at Indiana.

Final Evaluation

Fernando Mendoza’s polished pocket passing, strong arm, and low turnover risk make him a promising 2026 NFL Draft prospect with a high floor and starter potential. His 2024 breakout and 2025 move to Indiana’s spread offense offer a platform to address big-game inexperience and pressure mechanics, critical for a late 1st–early 2nd round selection. In a pro-style or West Coast system, Mendoza’s play mirrors Eli Manning’s rhythmic, reliable passing, positioning him as a potential franchise QB with targeted development.

Sources

• PFF 2024 QB Stats

• PFF 2023 QB Stats

• Sports Reference

• Bleacher Report

• ESPN

• NFL Draft Buzz

• Pro Football Network

• The 33rd Team

• NFL.com

• CBS Sports

• The Athletic